[golfbulldog]

what percentage of the field ( about 140 players??) will hit the green in regulation? Most pros are in the 60-70% range for GIR... they are hitting maybe 5-sw on average maybe?

So GIR for this 288 yard hole is going to be about 50% if played near full length... so if half the field hit the green and 2 putt then about half ( 65) will get par....maybe 5 birdies per round from those who hit the green...

the half that miss the green ... about 50%( 35 players ) will end in sand...50 % ( 35 players ) in rough /fringe...

if the green is relatively flat...the "sand saves" and "scrambling" stats might be a bit better eg. 55% and 60-65% respectively...being generous!!

so those 35 in sand .... maybe 20 get up and down for par...15 make bogey +...

and those 35 in rough/fringe maybe 23 make par and 12 make bogey +.....

so of 140 players...

100-110 pars
5 birdies
20-30 bogeys
double or worse 5-10

score average = about 3.3...

hmm... i reckon nearer 3.4 +...

as you have guessed i am not a bookie or statistitian.... probably bent stats law to my own way of thinking.... but this is my prediction!!